EV sales have doubled. Is a ‘tidal wave’ coming?

[Ogre]

Just think if Tesla had an advertising department how they could rip company's like GM, Ford, VW, et al. with ads showing ICE engine vehicles vs the pure EV's Tesla makes(just as one example).

They could got to town on ICE in the UK right now. Then again, they don't have to advertise in the UK right now since everyone there is scrambling to get an EV regardless.

The market is in a really odd place right now. Demand for EVs has picked up massively and suddenly all the old automakers who were calling Tesla a science experiment are trying to helicopter in late in the game and portray themselves as being ahead of the curve.

I suspect GM isn't going to be the last one with big safety issues in the years ahead.

 

[John K]

Not a tidal wave. Similar to a backed up toilet while panic sets in if it will overflow.

 

[TruckElectric]

They could got to town on ICE in the UK right now. Then again, they don't have to advertise in the UK right now since everyone there is scrambling to get an EV regardless.

Not that I would wish that to happen in the U.S. but I wonder if the there would be a similar reaction?

 

[jerhenderson]

Just think if Tesla had an advertising department how they could rip company's like GM, Ford, VW, et al. with ads showing ICE engine vehicles vs the pure EV's Tesla makes(just as one example).

advertising costs thousands per vehicle sale. that's lost profit.

 

[JBee]

UK fuel shortage is self inflicted poor management. (Visa's??)

Wait until there are electricity shortages because there are too many EVs.

 

[fritter63]

It's like standing on the beach and watching the water recede before a tsunami hits. You see it happening, you know there is a tsunami coming you don't ask if there is one coming.

"The avalanche has begun. It is too late for the pebbles to vote" - Ambassador Kosh, Babylon 5

 

[fritter63]

Just think if Tesla had an advertising department how they could rip company's like GM, Ford, VW, et al. with ads showing ICE engine vehicles vs the pure EV's Tesla makes(just as one example).

DO you remember this Nissan commercial? It was pure genius.



ETA: that's a long version that doesn't include the tagline "What if everything ran on gas? Then again, what if it didn't?". Then shows a Leaf being charged.

 

[Crissa]

Wait until there are electricity shortages because there are too many EVs.

EVs mostly charge whenever it's convenient. So they actually reduce peak energy consumption instead of raising it.

-Crissa

 

[fritter63]

Wait until there are electricity shortages because there are too many EVs.

please do your homework

 

[Delusional]

This chart has been used so much over the years that I can't find it's origin.
It tells this story. Once a new technology reaches a certain critical mass of adoption, about fifteen percent, everybody wants it. The pace of adoption has increased over time.

Electric vehicles outperform ICE in every measurable metric except refueling time.
They need a certain infrastructure that may slow their rate of adoption, but it will be no different this time. Once about one out of eight people have an electric car, the rest will realize that they are missing, and jump in eagerly.

Question: In what way do electric vehicles underperform ICE, other than the amount of time for a recharge?
I can think of only this one. They are a little more expensive now, but their cost is dropping.

 

[fritter63]

This chart has been used so much over the years that I can't find it's origin.
It tells this story. Once a new technology reaches a certain critical mass of adoption, about fifteen percent, everybody wants it. The pace of adoption has increased over time.

Electric vehicles outperform ICE in every measurable metric except refueling time.
They need a certain infrastructure that may slow their rate of adoption, but it will be no different this time. Once about one out of eight people have an electric car, the rest will realize that they are missing, and jump in eagerly.

Question: In what way do electric vehicles underperform ICE, other than the amount of time for a recharge?
I can think of only this one. They are a little more expensive now, but their cost is dropping.

It’s s a non issue, we charge while we sleep.

 

[HaulingAss]

UK fuel shortage is self inflicted poor management. (Visa's??)

Wait until there are electricity shortages because there are too many EVs.

There might be local shortages here and there and the utility will fix them, just as they have always done when there has been sudden growth in electrical consumption. Fortunately, EV's can charge at night when utilities don't want to turn off their generating assets if they can help it. The wind keeps blowing at night and it costs a lot of money to shut off a coal or traditional natural gas generator. At night there is always a surplus of generating assets. The absolute worse case scenario is you will be asked not to charge your car during peak electrical demand hours - a big nothing burger. Even then, it would only be until the utility could upgrade transformers in your area.

Besides, once people become accustomed to electricity being available 24/7 to run their lights and heating systems, to keep their food fresh, to charge their phones and power their TV's and computers, they will not stand for the power being shut down for long. All of those uses of electricity cannot be postponed into the middle of the night when people are sleeping - EV charging is not time sensitive at all. It can be done at work when there is a surplus of solar electricity in the middle of the day or at home OR in the middle of the night when everyone is in bed.

The idea there will be widespread electrical shortages because EV's have overwhelmed the grid is just a scary story created by fossil fuel interests who are starting to run scared.

 

[JBee]

please do your homework

There might be local shortages here and there and the utility will fix them, just as they have always done when there has been sudden growth in electrical consumption. Fortunately, EV's can charge at night when utilities don't want to turn off their generating assets if they can help it. The wind keeps blowing at night and it costs a lot of money to shut off a coal or traditional natural gas generator. At night there is always a surplus of generating assets. The absolute worse case scenario is you will be asked not to charge your car during peak electrical demand hours - a big nothing burger. Even then, it would only be until the utility could upgrade transformers in your area.

Besides, once people become accustomed to electricity being available 24/7 to run their lights and heating systems, to keep their food fresh, to charge their phones and power their TV's and computers, they will not stand for the power being shut down for long. All of those uses of electricity cannot be postponed into the middle of the night when people are sleeping - EV charging is not time sensitive at all. It can be done at work when there is a surplus of solar electricity in the middle of the day or at home OR in the middle of the night when everyone is in bed.

The idea there will be widespread electrical shortages because EV's have overwhelmed the grid is just a scary story created by fossil fuel interests who are starting to run scared.

You just need to do some energy numbers to see how much energy cars use in comparison to at home energy use. You will need more fossils if you use the grid and you will have to seriously upgrade the grid too. Our grid is at least 70% renewable energy already but it can't handle a single super charger. No fear just real engineering problems.

 

[Crissa]

You just need to do some energy numbers to see how much energy cars use in comparison to at home energy use. You will need more fossils if you use the grid and you will have to seriously upgrade the grid too. Our grid is at least 70% renewable energy already but it can't handle a single super charger. No fear just real engineering problems.

No.

Planned renewable/industrial generation is far more efficient than shipping gasoline to each and every vehicle.

And no, there are totally Superchargers in Australia. It doesn't depend upon your grid, as they can (and are) installed with their own batteries to smooth out their draw at peak use.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

You just need to do some energy numbers to see how much energy cars use in comparison to at home energy use. You will need more fossils if you use the grid and you will have to seriously upgrade the grid too. Our grid is at least 70% renewable energy already but it can't handle a single super charger. No fear just real engineering problems.

I'm well-versed in the energy consumption of homes, cars, grid capacity, etc. Yes, EV's will push up fossil fuels used on the grid. But nothing it can't handle. Even if all EV's ran on electricity sourced 100% from fossil fuels they would still have a lower carbon footprint than if all of them ran on gasoline. But that will never be the case because we have nuclear, hydro, wind and solar and the mix of sustainable sources increases each and every year.

Electric utilities around the globe are at the beginning of an EV boom that will more fully utilize their grid assets as more and more EV's come on line and profits will increase more quickly than they have since the air conditioning boom of the 1960's. And that's after subtracting capital expenses and interest for capacity upgrades.

This is not a disaster in the making, it's a transfer of profits to the electrical utilities right out of the pockets of big oil and coal. But there will always be a Chicken Little claiming the sky is falling and the utilities are not up to doing what they do best - providing an ever-increasing amount of electricity to power American industry and homes.