Toyota, in Reversal, Says It Will Shift More Rapidly to EVs

[Ogre]

I thought this article said the majority of batteries would be for hybrids not BEVs.

The only way Toyota is moving away from hybrids to BEVs is if Biden has changed his mind and removed hybrids from his electrify America plan. Hybrids should not count as an EV because the majority of the propulsion is by ICE, which I continue to call a gimmick. ….

Right now, we don’t have enough battery capacity to meet current demand.

Does it make sense to encourage PHEVs in the mean time?

Each PHEV uses 1/10th the batteries of a BEV. Does it make more sense to have 10 hybrids on the road or 1 BEV?

Perhaps the real solution is people buy used vehicles until the BEV market matures, but I’m not sure that’s practical.

Not advocating for PHEVs here, just thinking aloud.

 

[Ogre]

Like BMW?

BMW signs deal to buy Argentine lithium

https://en.mercopress.com/2021/12/13/bmw-signs-deal-to-buy-argentine-lithium

That is the sort of long term deal these brands need to be doing. (And should have done 5 years ago when everything was less expensive).

 

[firsttruck]

.....
As for Tesla tanking, Tesla can not produce enough EVs to furnish the entire world, they will need competent help. Right now, I'm not really seeing any competent company that can produce good EVs to work with Tesla. People, especially politicians, need to quit trying to force Tesla out because Ford, GM, VW and Toyota are decades away from being able to produce enough EVs along with Tesla to satisfy the need. I still believe the list of five will be cut down to at most three with Tesla being the only American EV vehicle producers left.

edit: sorry, forgot about Chinese EV production but I have to wonder how many of these will reach the USA. I see most of these staying in China and being exported to places like India.

Yup, most Chinese EV exports will be to India, Africa, south America, Eastern Europe.

But several million will sell in Western Europe & U.S.
If the Chinese EVs sold in U.S. are of high quality (similar to 2022 Hyundia/Kia), priced in $20K-$30K range, and less than ICE equivalent, the U.S. legacies are going to be in huge trouble because some buyers will buy Chinese EVs but even more buyers will wait (Osbourne Effect) for EVs instead of buying ICE.

 

[Deleted member 12457]

Right now, we don’t have enough battery capacity to meet current demand.

Does it make sense to encourage PHEVs in the mean time?

Each PHEV uses 1/10th the batteries of a BEV. Does it make more sense to have 10 hybrids on the road or 1 BEV?

Perhaps the real solution is people buy used vehicles until the BEV market matures, but I’m not sure that’s practical.

Not advocating for PHEVs here, just thinking aloud.

Yes, PHEVs use 1/10 the number of batteries so the vast majority of driving is done using the ICE which doesn't help the climate or my lungs.

I'd rather see large, gas/diesel guzzling/smoking vehicles, especially trucks either removed from the road of have reduced sales instead of adding more PHEV along with more companies committing to building and actually delivering EVs. I don't believe having more hybrids helps anyone except for CEOs and those investing in oil stocks. Allowing more hybrids on the road, especially hybrid SUVs and trucks that really don't provide less gas usage, only allows ICE manufacturers to continue to delay the conversion to EV. As for UAW, it's time to learn something new, just like coal miners, if they want to survive. Nothing lasts forever and workers need to adapt. I did and so can others. I also think it's time for unions to learn how to work with companies instead of blackmailing them. Why should union heads (CEOs) make a ton of money instead of the actual works. Same with company CEOs. Pay the people who actually do the work. Washington DC is so entrenched in corporatist America they continue to forget that regular people are the ones who make them money by buying products.

 

[firsttruck]

Right now, we don’t have enough battery capacity to meet current demand.

Does it make sense to encourage PHEVs in the mean time?

Each PHEV uses 1/10th the batteries of a BEV. Does it make more sense to have 10 hybrids on the road or 1 BEV?

Perhaps the real solution is people buy used vehicles until the BEV market matures, but I’m not sure that’s practical.

Not advocating for PHEVs here, just thinking aloud.

PHEVs with 1/3 batteries might not be so bad.

The biggest problem is 1/10 battery size PHEVs will not have enough range for most owners daily driving. So they use gas and soon they do not bother charging and just use gas for 100%. This is especially true for buyers who don't have a charger at home. More pollution, more climate change gases.

On a level playing field in 2025, legacy OEMs would not be able to sell PHEVs in competition with EVs because now 100% full BEVs will cost less than small battery PHEVs. Small battery PHEVs cost more to make than 100% ICE and 100% full BEVs will cost less to make than 100% ICE.

This is why legacy OEMs are so desperate for the U.S. Federal subsidy because it is the only way their small battery PHEVs can be lower net initial cost to buyers than 100% full BEVs.
Most buyers will not realize that long-term costs of PHEVs is still higher than 100% full BEVs.
Dealers are somewhat happy because PHEVs keep customers on dealers maintenance cost revenue stream since small battery PHEVs need much more service than 100% full BEVs.

The U.S. union made provision in the subsidy bill is a sacrifice pawn. The legacy OEMs know it will not pass. Even Canada & Mexico object to that provision because it violates the trade agreement.
The legacy OEMs did not put the union subsidy in to help the union. They expect the union subsidy to get axed.

Legacy OEMs get two things
1. Union get more of a bad reputation with public, media, EV proponents
2. Keeps spotlight OFF PHEV subsidy by distracting public, media, EV proponents

 

[Crissa]

They may need to mobilize the Japanese Inc. again. Remember, Panasonic is Japanese and it's easy enough to create another ghost company to skirt their Tesla arrangements.

I doubt Tesla blocks their partners from selling to other auto companies as long as they meet their production goals.

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

The only way Toyota is moving away from hybrids to BEVs is if Biden has changed his mind and ...

That's not Biden's plan, dear.

-Crissa

 

[Zapharus]

The only way Toyota is moving away from hybrids to BEVs is if Biden has changed his mind and removed hybrids from his electrify America plan. Hybrids should not count as an EV because the majority of the propulsion is by ICE, which I continue to call a gimmick. There are uses for a combination of ICE and EV, such as in ships and buses where the more powerful electric motors are powered by (generally) diesel engines, but cars and small trucks need to be full BEV.

This 100%! I don’t know why the people in charge of this bill (If it passes) think they’re making a strong push toward clean energy by still including hybrid vehicles. Same thing with the “union built” incentive, if they really cared about the environment they wouldn’t include those portions. They’re just paying lip service to make it seem like they care.

 

[Zapharus]

Right now, we don’t have enough battery capacity to meet current demand.

Does it make sense to encourage PHEVs in the mean time?

Each PHEV uses 1/10th the batteries of a BEV. Does it make more sense to have 10 hybrids on the road or 1 BEV?

Perhaps the real solution is people buy used vehicles until the BEV market matures, but I’m not sure that’s practical.

Not advocating for PHEVs here, just thinking aloud.

You make great points, I didn’t think about that myself. You’re totally right though.

 

[Crissa]

Because per battery, it takes more CO2 off the road to have a hybrid.

The hybrid credit dies out in just a couple years. It's not a big part of this deal.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Yes, PHEVs use 1/10 the number of batteries so the vast majority of driving is done using the ICE which doesn't help the climate or my lungs.

My buddy bought one of those PHEV Wranger Rubicons. About 50% of his driving is done on pure electric.

It spews roughly half the greenhouse gasses it would without the plug in. Considering he was going to buy a serious off road vehicle and there are no electric alternatives at this point, I think it’s a net win. I’d have suggested he wait, but some people aren’t that patient.

I don’t think they should be added to a more open-ended incentive plan… but then I don’t like the open ended plan in general.

 

[Deleted member 12457]

Nothing to do with this conversation but saw this mentioned on a video. https://archive.org/details/PopularMechanics1972/Popular Mechanics-09-1972 Talks about electric cars.

 

[Cyberman]

My my my... how the turns have tabled.

Thanks Elon

 

[Red61224]

So all the while when Elon was "building the ark" the little Toyota Luddites were snickering and laughing at the new technology. How the attitude can change when you finally feel the raindrops falling all around and you ain't got a boat.

 

[jerhenderson]

Lexus electric by 2035. 2035. 13 years from now. 13 YEARS. 13. Ouch that's slow for one brand.