What will happen to diesel powered equipment?

[jhogan2424]

EVs are going to be mainstream for personal transportation in the very near future and I think it’s hard to argue otherwise. But, what about heavy equipment such as tractors, skid steers, excavators, dozers, dump trucks etc? I am wondering what will happen to the value of the million dollars worth of equipment I own. I have seen almost no options for battery electric equipment. IHI is manufacturing an electric tracked excavator but it is not battery powered and must be plugged in which could never work for my applications. Will my equipment all become nearly worthless in the near future? Should I try to replace each piece of equipment with battery powered as soon as something is offered? I have thought of this but replacing equipment that is proven reliable with a brand new technology seems a little risky and a lot expensive. Anyone have any thoughts? Will diesel powered equipment stay the norm or will we begin to see battery powered heavy equipment? It seems a huge challenge for batteries to push around thousands of tons of materials all day.

 

[JJ_Tex]

I see the shift to EV happening, but it will be at a much slower pace.

For personal equipment, do what makes sense for your use case. For example, I have a gas mower, electric weed eater, electric blower, and gas edger. I bought a battery edger, but that was very short-lived as it was not powerful enough to edge my entire yard in one charge as I have a small yard but there are lots of edging with the sidewalks, driveways, etc. Hopefully, the edger technology improves and I can switch to an electric one sometime in the future. Also, my small yard would be perfect for an electric mower and I will switch to electric but not until my current mower dies.

For heavy equipment, I think it too will shift but it will take decades. Caterpillar just announced they are working on EV mining equipment so that is a good start but seems to be in its infancy.
Source: https://electrek.co/2021/06/29/egeb...op-all-electric-vehicles-for-a-graphite-mine/

I would also think trains, boats, airplanes will switch to EV but I do not see them getting rid of all of the fossil fuel burning equipment in my lifetime.

 

[HaulingAss]

EVs are going to be mainstream for personal transportation in the very near future and I think it’s hard to argue otherwise. But, what about heavy equipment such as tractors, skid steers, excavators, dozers, dump trucks etc? I am wondering what will happen to the value of the million dollars worth of equipment I own. I have seen almost no options for battery electric equipment. IHI is manufacturing an electric tracked excavator but it is not battery powered and must be plugged in which could never work for my applications. Will my equipment all become nearly worthless in the near future? Should I try to replace each piece of equipment with battery powered as soon as something is offered? I have thought of this but replacing equipment that is proven reliable with a brand new technology seems a little risky and a lot expensive. Anyone have any thoughts? Will diesel powered equipment stay the norm or will we begin to see battery powered heavy equipment? It seems a huge challenge for batteries to push around thousands of tons of materials all day.

They will all go electric but the transition of heavy equipment is going to take a lot longer than cars so I don't think there is any rush.

 

[jhogan2424]

These thoughts make me feel considerably better. In the next year or so I will be needing to replace an excavator and I always try to think ahead. I was thinking should I continue to repair my current machine when needed so as make it last until an electric hit the market or go ahead and purchase a new diesel model. I wouldn’t want to invest the money in a machine and then learn a year later that it had become obsolet overnight. Hopefully electric models will make it to market and both electric and diesel models can coexist without one taking the other out. Thanks for the replies.

 

[fritter63]

https://www.businessinsider.com/edumper-121-ton-electric-dump-truck-2019-8

 

[Ogre]

Big equipment has a lot of issues cars and trucks lack. Just figuring how to charge something that requires 500 kWh or more in the field is going to be tough.

I’m pretty sure you have at least a decade before it’sa big concern.

 

[CyberGus]

Combustion engines will be around for a long time. Heavy construction, farm equipment, aerospace/aviation, military, etc. Hydrogen isn't completely crazy for such a use case.

In a theoretical apocalypse, you could still make your own biodiesel (organic oil, lye, and methanol) so diesel will never disappear. If forced to farm with electricity only, the equipment could be corded (long cord, I know lol) or even have overhead wires like the San Francisco trolleys.

For the dwindling-but-persistent fleet of gas cars, there will still be gas demand for many decades. Worst case, you pay $10/gallon for Porsche's synthetic gasoline.

 

[fritter63]

anol) so diesel will never disappear. If forced to farm with electricity only, the equipment could be corded (long cord, I know lol) or even have overhead wires like the San Francisco trolleys.

Unless much of it is replaced by hydroponics and vertical farming, which is more efficient and uses less water anyway.

 

[Zabhawkin]

Even looking at ICE cars. Some states/countries are looking at ICE free (no new ICE vehicles sold) in the 2030-2035 timeframe, and that is for light duty, though I do expect the delivery vans and short haul tractor trailer rigs to transition about the same timeframe. The average ICE car lasts about 20-30 years. You should be able to get gasoline through 2050 at least though cost might become a factor.

That's not even counting the fact that I am expecting the transition on the grid to cause delays. Removing 60% of production while increasing demand by 20% in 30-40 years. That doesn't include Nuclear which is another 20% of current US electricity production.

Diesel will be around for longer than gasoline due to what it is used for and the areas it tends to be used for.

 

[Cyberman]

I agree, it'll be a few decades before there's any notable shift in heavy equipment

 

[Quicksilver]

We just had to replace an 2004 Ram 3500 with a 2022 Ram 3500.
The big bastage cost more than my first house and has the Cummins diesel, automatic and 4WD.
Had there been an electric truck that could do the same thing the 3500 does (haul hay and stock trailers and multiple pallets of bagged feed) I would have bought one without hesitation.
It may be several years before medium duty trucks (one ton to ten ton) can be electrified.
I foresee a smaller version of the Tesla semi tractor (stretched to accept different style beds) and falling into the 60 to 80 thousand dollar price range.
Diesel is already high and modern diesels have to use DEF which adds several cents to a gallon of fuel.
I also don't see small farm tractors going electric anytime soon.
It takes me two full days and a tank and a half of diesel to bush hog 30 acres of pasture. I can't see a small electric tractor (at a reasonable price) that could match the performance or price of a diesel anytime soon. As a benchmark my 54 HP Kioti 4WD with front end loader and backhoe set me back 36K two years ago.
As we all know it it the battery restriction that is holding back the production of electric cars and trucks.
Once battery production increases dramatically we will see more and more electrification of formally ICE equipment.
IMHO we are looking at 10-15 years.

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

ICE vehicles will be still around for the heavy duty applications. That will be a small amount. For the majority of the population, going electric vehicles will be the solution for a cleaner planet.